Arvest Newsroom

Current Conditions and Consumer Expectations Data Summary
Consumers Expect Better Personal Finances, Buying Conditions in Near Future

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (Dec. 2, 2014)

Regional Economic Outlook

Respondents were more optimistic in October compared to June when asked if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. The index increased to from 89.0 in June to 93.0 in October. They were also far more optimistic in October 2014 about their expected financial situation in a year with an index of 110.0. The survey respondents were pessimistic about the prospects for general business conditions over the next year and next five years, as more respondents reported that they expect poor economic conditions. This pessimism is reflected in the October 2014 index reading of 75.0 for business conditions in a year and 81.0 for economic conditions over the next five years. Respondents in October were also positive about buying conditions in the next six months with an index of 118.0. Overall, respondents from the region were slightly more pessimistic about the future economic conditions but more positive about their current status in October than they were in June. The current conditions index increased to 82.0 in October, while the consumer expectations index declined to 66.5.

Arkansas

Respondents were slightly more negative in October than in June when asked if their current financial situation was better or worse than a year ago. The index declined from 87.0 in June to 86.0 in October. They were also less optimistic in October about their expected financial situation in one year with an index of 105.0 compared to 109.0 in June. The survey respondents were slightly less pessimistic about general business conditions over the next year and next five years compared to June. This pessimism is reflected in the October index reading of 70.0 for business conditions in a year and 75.0 for economic conditions over the next five years. Respondents in October were positive about buying conditions in the next six months with an index of 110.0. Overall, respondents from Arkansas were slightly less pessimistic about future economic conditions but more positive about their current status in October than in June. The current conditions index increased to 76.3 in October, while the consumer expectations index increased to 62.9.

Missouri

Missouri residents showed across-the-board improvement in their outlook about their current financial situation and future expectations. Respondents were more optimistic in October than in June when asked if their current financial situation was better or worse than a year ago. The index increased to 93.0 in October. They were also more optimistic in October about the expected financial situation in a year, as indicated by an index of 110.0. The survey respondents were relatively pessimistic about the outlook for general business conditions over the next year and next five years, as more respondents reported that they expect poor economic conditions over that time period. This relative pessimism was not reflected in the October index reading of 86.0 for business conditions in a year and 97.0 for economic conditions over the next five years. Respondents in October were positive about buying conditions in the next six months with an index of 124.0. Overall, respondents from Missouri were less pessimistic about their current status and future economic conditions in October than in June. The current conditions index increased to 84.0, while the consumer expectations index increased to 73.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma residents have improved sentiment toward their current financial situation compared to June but a more negative view regarding their expectations of future business conditions. The current conditions index increased to 101.0 in October from 94 in June. Expectations of their personal financial situation in a year remained the same, with an index of 115.0. The survey respondents were pessimistic about the outlook for general business conditions over the next year and next five years, as more respondents reported that they expect poor economic conditions. This pessimism is reflected in the October index reading of 69.0 for business conditions in a year and 73.0 for economic conditions over the next five years. Respondents in October were positive about buying conditions in the next six months with an index of 120.0. Overall, respondents from Oklahoma were more optimistic about their current status but more pessimistic about future economic conditions in October than in June. The current conditions index increased to 85.8 in October, while the consumer expectations index declined to 64.2.

Current Financial Situation Compared with a Year Ago

Better OffSameWorse OffResponsesIndex Score
Regional20%54%26%1,21893.0
Arkansas18%50%32%41686.0
Missouri18%58%24%40593.0
Oklahoma24%53%23%397101.0

Expected Change in Financial Situation Compared in a Year

Better OffSameWorse OffResponsesIndex Score
Regional29%51%19%1,178110.0
Arkansas26%54%20%403105.0
Missouri29%53%19%387110.0
Oklahoma33%48%19%388115.0

Expected Change in Business Conditions in a Year

Good TimesUncertainBad TimesResponsesIndex Score
Regional25%24%51%1,10475.0
Arkansas23%23%53%37970.0
Missouri30%27%44%36286.0
Oklahoma22%24%54%36369.0

Expected Change in Business Conditions in 5 Years

Continuous
Good Times
Widespread
Unemployment
OtherResponsesIndex Score
Regional36%55%9%1,16381.0
Arkansas32%58%10%39875.0
Missouri43%46%11%38897.0
Oklahoma32%60%8%37773.0

Buying Conditions

Good TimesMixed -
Good & Bad
Bad TimesResponsesIndex Score
Regional50%19%31%1,110118.0
Arkansas46%18%36%385110.0
Missouri52%19%29%366124.0
Oklahoma51%18%31%359120.0

 

Personal FinancesBusiness ConditionsBuying
Conditions
Current
Conditions
Index
Consumer
Expectations
Index
Oct. 2014CurrentExpected12 Months5 Years
Regional93.0110.075.081.0118.082.066.5
Arkansas86.0105.070.075.0110.076.362.9
Missouri93.0110.086.097.0124.084.073.1
Oklahoma101.0115.069.073.0120.085.864.2

Note: Percentages may not equal 100 because of rounding to nearest whole number within the report.