Arvest Newsroom

Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index Summary for Spring 2016

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (May 17, 2016) — The Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index is based on methodology developed by the University of Michigan for its national-level Index of Consumer Sentiment. It is based on five questions that evaluate consumer perceptions about their current and future finances, current and future business conditions, plans to purchase major household items, current level of consumer debt, current and planned savings, and demographic information. Researchers collected these perceptions using telephone and online surveys conducted in March 2016.

IndexNationalRegionalArkansasMissouriOklahoma
Spring 201482.571.467.468.676.4
Fall 201486.972.668.177.472.6
Spring 201593.0*83.279.185.284.8
Fall 201587.282.677.885.885.0
Spring 201690.083.484.983.981.3

*Revised by the University of Michigan

Arkansas

Arkansas consumer sentiment increased strongly from September 2015 to the latest reading in March 2016. The March 2016 reading is the first time since the inception of the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index in early 2014 that Arkansas has recorded better consumer sentiment readings than the overall region, Missouri and Oklahoma. In March 2016, the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index for Arkansas was 84.9, up from 77.8 in September 2015 and higher than the regional reading of 83.4. It is also the closest Arkansas’ index score has been to the national index.

Missouri

Missourians are slightly more pessimistic about the economy than they were in September 2015. Since June 2014, consumer confidence has grown but essentially plateaued, driven by changes in consumer confidence between two income groups. Consumers with incomes below $75,000 are growing more confident while higher-income consumers saw confidence peak at 98.3 in March 2015 and slowly decline since then. This trend has led to convergence in sentiment among the two groups. In June 2014, there were more than 20 points separating them, while the gap is now only 0.7 points. In March 2016, the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index for Missouri was 83.9, down from 85.8 in September 2015, and slightly higher than the regional reading of 83.4.

Oklahoma

The reality of the severity and duration of the current commodity price downturn and its implications for the Oklahoma economy are reflected in the March 2016 sentiment reading. The downturn is in reaction to weakness in the oil and gas industry, now in its 15th consecutive month of contraction that is expected to last throughout 2016. In March 2016, the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index for Oklahoma was 81.3, down from 85.0 in September 2015 and lower than the regional reading of 83.4. The drop in consumer sentiment was driven primarily by families making less than $75,000 in annual income.

Index by Income

All FamiliesFamilies Under $75,000Families Over $75,000
Regional83.483.488.3
Arkansas84.983.186.3
Missouri83.985.886.5
Oklahoma81.377.785.6

Index by Age Subgroup

Ages 18-24Ages 25-44Ages 45-64Ages 65+
Regional91.889.376.174.4
Arkansas91.592.077.777.4
Missouri93.391.177.073.2
Oklahoma90.584.773.472.4

Index by Educational Attainment

High School or LessBachelor's DegreeGraduate Degree
Regional80.284.189.6
Arkansas75.685.896.1
Missouri80.983.892.3
Oklahoma79.981.879.5

Index by Presence of Children in the Home

ChildrenNo Children
Regional85.281.8
Arkansas91.993.9
Missouri90.279.2
Oklahoma80.079.1

Index by Employement Status

EmployedUnemployedNot in Labor Force
Regional88.076.776.4
Arkansas88.085.277.9
Missouri88.675.873.3
Oklahoma83.972.273.9

Index by Homeownership Status

Own HomeRent
Regional84.080.6
Arkansas83.684.3
Missouri83.783.6
Oklahoma77.984.4

Data released as part of the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey, summary and news releases is free for broadcast, publication or use in presentations. Please cite “Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey” as the source each time information is referenced.