As 2026 began, the S&P 500 stood at 6858, then dipped to 6343 by the end of March. Since then, the index has moved steadily upward, setting all-time highs above 7400 in May, despite disquieting news on several fronts. Navigating the financial markets is an ongoing challenge.
To explore what investors should focus on today, we are sharing a conversation with Arvest Wealth Management's Chief Investment Strategist, Clay Nickel, who has been designing investment portfolios for Arvest Wealth Management clients for more than 15 years.
Q&A with Clay Nickel
A few weeks ago, Jason Zweig observed in The Wall Street Journal that recently, “U.S. stocks have been less volatile than usual. The S&P 500 has swung at least 1% between its intraday high and low on 40 days so far this year. Through the same point in April, that happened 49 times in both 2023 and 2025, and 63 times in 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.”
Is that the usual measure of volatility?
That is one approach, though intra-day price swings are not typically a concern to individual investors. Wall Street traders use high-speed programs to react to price changes much faster than any individual can. Another measure of volatility is the VIX, which is calculated by the Chicago Board of Options Exchange based on data from the options market. It tends to rise concurrently with declining markets, after the horse is out of the barn, so to speak.
Investment professionals focus less on daily or weekly volatility and instead focus on departures from the historical levels of return and the standard deviations from that return, on the positive or negative side.
What steps do you recommend to individual investors to address today's volatility?
While immediate action is typically not required, it is advisable to discuss with your financial advisor. Doing so can help ensure that your current strategy continues to support your long-term objectives. The investor should have a long enough time horizon to weather the occasional downturn in the markets. Timing the market rarely works; the risk of being out of the market for an upward move is as great or greater than the loss of being in the market during a downward period.
There are financial products and strategies available for buffering an investment portfolio, hedging against financial loss by capping potential gains. This is not a wealth-building approach as much as it is a wealth protection strategy, appropriate in some circumstances.
How does the investor’s age and time horizon enter into this calculation?
The longer the time horizon, the more investment risk is appropriate. But remember, age alone does not determine time horizon. Individuals in their 70s may have a short time horizon if their objective is a financially secure retirement. However, if they have a goal of creating an inheritance for children or grandchildren, that could be a longer time frame. Each investor’s circumstances present unique challenges and opportunities for the design of an appropriate portfolio.
The S&P 500 has set new records recently. What is the chance we are near a top in market indices? How broad-based are these advances in stock prices?
The recent advances in stock prices have been powered by growing earnings. This market does not resemble the dot-com bubble at the turn of the century, in which some popular stocks had no net positive earnings at all. It is true that in a capitalization-based index such as the S&P 500, the largest companies have an outsized effect on setting index records, but earnings have been strong across the broad market. An index setting a record has little significance in portfolio management, although it may boost investor confidence that all is well.
How risky are bonds now?
There is less risk in the overall bond market today than during the 2021 – 2022 period. Yields are in line with historic norms and are above inflation levels. Credit quality is generally good. However, there are some pockets of the bond market that present more risk, so security selection is very important. Discussing potential risk and appropriate investments with your financial advisor is helpful.
How have the tariffs worked out? Was the economic impact as bad as expected?
The effect of the tariffs was not as damaging as they might have been, in part because some measures were rescinded before they went into effect. Businesses have adapted to the remaining tariffs, so the impact of the sudden change is coming to an end, absent new tariff surprises.
What other factors should investors be concerned about? For example, AI?
The coming impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is very unclear at the moment. It is highly probable that new skill sets will become essential. While the primary threat may not necessarily be losing a position to artificial intelligence itself, but rather to a professional who has developed proficiency in utilizing AI tools.
I’m concerned about the democratization of the private credit market, an area that traditionally was limited to institutional investors and the ultra-high-net-worth. Some companies are bringing this investment option to the masses, investors who may not fully appreciate the illiquidity and other risks that come with this choice. It is a legitimate element for some portfolios, but experienced supervision is needed to avoid accidents.
What are the benefits of working with an Arvest Wealth Management advisor for personal wealth management?
To maintain focus on your long-term objectives, Arvest Wealth Management’s advisors help filter out noise during times of market volatility. They collaborate with analytical professionals from our Portfolio Management & Research team to incorporate sophisticated strategies into your investment portfolio. Additionally, they can create an asset allocation strategy that aligns with your risk tolerance and lifelong goals. Reach out to an Arvest Wealth Management advisor to discuss your unique financial goals.
This content has been prepared by The Merrill Anderson Company and is intended as a general guideline.
© 2026 M.A. Co. All rights reserved.
Arvest and its associates do not provide tax or legal advice. The information presented here is not intended as, and should not be considered, tax or legal advice. Consult your tax and legal advisors accordingly.
